THE HOURS OF WAITING – All I can tell you is that voting is very heavy throughout the country.  In some areas the totals for 2014, the last midterm, have already been exceeded.  Some commentators are saying that totals in places may reach 2016 presidential levels.

What does that mean?

The pundits are talking.  I wish they wouldn't.  Theoretically, a high turnout is good for the challenging party, in this year the Democrats.  Also, theory holds that Dems are angry, despise Trump, and are rushing to the polls to send a message.

Well, maybe.

But Republicans are also angry, at the way Trump is treated, and the way Justice Kavanaugh was treated.  And they are angry at illegal immigration.

We're being told that young people are voting in greater-than-usual numbers, and that would almost certainly be good news for the Dems. 

Another point being made by the commentariat is that there was record early voting this year.  Don't read too much into that.  It's been my experience that the first mistake many people involved with politics makes is not understanding the passage of time and its effects.  Cultures change, styles change, ways of doing things change.  One of the greatest changes in American society in the last ten years has been the explosion of online shopping.   It's entirely logical that those who shop from home will also want the convenience of voting from home.  So the boom in early voting may have no political significance at all.

We await numbers.  Discount most of what you hear and read before definitive numbers come in.

November 6,  2018